Why Stacey Abrams Shouldn’t Concede, by the numbers

Journalist have already covered the massive voter suppression orchestrated by Brian Kemp.  It’s some next level shady stuff.  I had another piece ready to go about all the things the Abrams team could look for to show fraud, but as it turns out, basic math is all they need.  Georgia law dictates a mandatory runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%.

Given it’s not random why some votes haven’t been counted and given Kemp is very much opposed to having them counted, I think we can assume they are balanced in Abrams favour.  So how much does it need to be balanced in her favour for to spark a runoff? That answer depends how many ballots are outstanding. Here are a few scenarios I quickly whipped up using this very simple calculator.  This calculator actually slightly favours Kemp in that you only put in the % support Abrams would need to have and it assumes Kemp takes all the remaining support, when in reality, Metz could take some of those votes.  This was to simplify the calculation and since I’m a known liberal conspirator, I’m going to give Kemp this slight edge in the calculation.

As of this writing, Kemp has just shy of 50.3%.

There is a dispute between the number of provisional ballots in existence:

  1. Kemp says there are only 20k provisional ballots
  2. Abrams team says they collected  31k names from counties of provisional ballots casts.
  3. A judge in Dougherty county has ruled GA accepts ballots postmarked by election day
  4. Still unclear how many more outstanding ballots there are

Basically as long as Abrams has roughly 60% support on enough of the outstanding ballots, there will be an automatic runoff. I built a quick interactive version of my calculator which I published to Tableau Public.  You can use it to create your own scenarios and see what the outcome would be.  

Here are some probable scenarios that would spark and automatic runoff:

  • There are at least 100k outstanding ballots to which Abrams has at least 65% support
    • If there are at least 150k outstanding ballots, she only needs 57.5% support
  • Even if they only count the roughly 31k ballots team Abrams has found collecting county records, she only needs to exceed 85% support amongst that small group to force an automatic runoff

Real journalists have covered the multitude of reasons why this campaign would be declared rigged in any other part of the world so I don’t need to cover that.  What I can tell you is I volunteered to transcribe those photos of county records this weekend to help team Abrams assemble the count. There is nothing random about the names on those lists.  There is a reason Brian Kemp doesn’t want them counted. Don’t let him steal this election in plain sight.